Friday, August 24, 2007

Ohio - Please consider Obama

Brzezinski Embraces Obama Over Clinton for President - Yahoo! News
``There is a need for a fundamental rethinking of how we conduct world affairs,'' he added. ``And Obama seems to me to have both the guts and the intelligence to address that issue and to change the nature of America's relationship with the world.''

I have discussed in several of my blogs and with everyone I meet that we need a change and that change does not include Hilliary Clinton. Vote for Barack Obama.

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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Email to my broker on March 3, 2007

Hello Jeff,

It seems I can never pull the trigger the way I would really like too. I had this same feeling back in the dot com bubble as I could not figure out how AOL was going to make money. A few players did survive and have come back, but the survivors are those that have been proficient at directing clients where they want to go or where they think they want to go or ones attached to bricks and mortar operations.

Having said that I feel the market is in the same condition as I cannot see what the future holds very well and all choices are fraught with danger. There appears to be too many tipping points to be in this market safely.

My primary concern is the discrepancy between those that that forecast energy supplies and the actual production of energy resources. The oil fields of Mexico and England are crashing and it is suspected that the Saudi fields are in decline. If this is the case, then the foundation of the continued growth of the capital markets is suspect. The rise in energy prices are already causing demand destruction in Zimbabwe and our energy policy is causing corn and grain prices to increase in third world countries. The only way my energy play work is if there is a "slow squeeze", which seems possible in the current environment, but unlikely. Currently the only way to deal with the situation is for the Saudi's to come clean on production or the world creates demand destruction in a manner to prevent continued expansion of petroleum and gas resources. The only way to do this is to go to war or have a recession. We currently have housing under pressure and the oil producing regions under pressure. It just seems tenuous and it appears unlikely that the US can continue its lifestyle while China and India strive for a first world existence. It seems the age of oil will end poorly and the best approach is to economize, localize and produce.

With those concepts in mind I think it would be best to be out of the market until at a minimum of August. By August, barring no precipitous demand drop, the Saudi production should become clear or Bush will have created demand destruction through war. It appears I should be one of the first out the door. If peak oil does become mainstream, we will see gold go up and maybe some running to alternative energy. I do not see that as being sustainable in the short term until an adult response comes into being.

Therefore, I would like to be 1/3 energy, 1/3 gold (bullion not producers) and bonds where most people flee when they are afraid. I would also like to know long it would take to liquidate my account if my scenario plays out. If it does play out, I want hit the exit as quick as possible and invest in my local essential business area (if I can figure that out).

Let me know what you think even if you think I should be committed.

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

DDN speaks the truth to Kettering - GM consolidates to China but dispatchers cannot locate to Montgomery County

Our View: Kettering rejecting money-saving deal
One day the price will become too much for all of them to pretend they're islands.

Every once in a great while the truth is spoken in the DDN, but they will not stand up and say sacrifice their precious Austin Road interchange to correct the infrastructure deficiencies in Ohio. The DDN only cares when it impacts their revenue.

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Monday, August 13, 2007

Mr. Walker of the GAO calls it clear - One more reason to ignore DC / World - Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned
Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr Walker warned there were “striking similarities” between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including “declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government”.

“Sound familiar?” Mr Walker said. “In my view, it’s time to learn from history and take steps to ensure the American Republic is the first to stand the test of time.”

I am truly enjoying being at the pinnacle of the Roman Empire and I am trying to enjoy the ride as the roller coaster has reached the top. The chain has been released from the ride and and there is no sound while the ride is frozen for an instant in time before the cars move toward the abyss. I am ready for the ride and will keep my hands up and look around for those that cannot stomach the plunge. We voted for this ride as the American public voted the old serpent to represent at us at every level of government.

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Sunday, August 12, 2007

Why I will never vote for someone from New York

The markets are like a blind retard with a strong sense of smell looking for sweets using a sawed-off shotgun. It is amoral and totally self-interested. If getting the sweets means killing off the population, then so be it. The argument that it "gets us a better candy bar," somehow does not seem all that freaking relevant when as a result of that better candy bar the planet suffers an extinction event.

The stock market is not way to run a country, let alone the world.

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Saturday, August 11, 2007

Sins of Omission

The sins of omission is a topic touched on in a previous blog. Sin of Omission assumes a populace and laity that understands' God's word as well as the world he created. A concept that requires thought and some degree of science training, which most Christians avoid or rationalize. The concept of sins of omission is well known among the WWII generation, but is a lost concept in today's ignorant society. It must mean we cannot discuss that America had a bigger heart and a better soul in the past. It is unfortunate that the media has allowed us to claim ignorance about how American appettites and addiction impact the world.

How does this post pertain to sin? Simple, or addictions are killing people in other parts of the world and they are aware of our ignorance.

We are sowing the seeds of dissent with our actions, but are we ready for the reaping and weeping? NO, we are giving 40k bonuses for those that sign up to kill people in 30 days.

Here is another data point for consideration - The subprime defaults are an example of higher energy prices impacting the American economy. Just be glad you do not live in the third world.!

Peak Oil Hits the Third World
Here in the first world, we still have the luxury of armchair theorizing about peak oil, and paying a bit more for gasoline, but the third world is actually feeling the pain of peak oil today. Rising oil prices are acting as a regressive worldwide tax, pricing poorer countries right out of the market. Since their experience must to some extent herald ours as peak sets in, let's see how peak oil feels to those who are undergoing it firsthand.

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Wednesday, August 8, 2007

The Middle Class Squeeze

The following string captures the pressures that are facing the US today and in turn the people of Dayton, Ohio. Unfortunately, due to homogeneous thinking, Dayton's leadership is following the US and State government like bleating sheep for the shearing. We need to step up and start building a local economy that utilizes all the skills of the citizens that surround the Miami Valley. We need manufacturing, wool making, public transportation, craftsmanship and quality. I am afraid of living in an era where our leadership sells out America, so the rich get richer. We should stop now.

The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: August 8, 2007
'The core of the issue is growing angst among wage earners in the US; their earning potential has stagnated - politicians are simply reflecting this real concern. Over the last several years, a striking new feature of the US economy has emerged: real income growth has been extremely skewed, with relatively few high earners doing well while incomes for most workers have stagnated or, in many cases, fallen. Just what mix of forces is behind this trend is not yet clear, but regardless, the numbers are stark. Less than 4% of workers were in educational groups that enjoyed increases in mean real money earnings from 2000 to 2005; mean real money earnings rose for workers with doctorates and professional graduate degrees and fell for all others. In contrast to earlier decades, today it is not just those at the bottom of the skill ladder who are hurting. Even college graduates and workers with non-professional master's degrees saw their mean real money earnings decline. By some measures, inequality in the United States is greater today than at any time since the 1920s. - Kenneth Scheve and Matthew Slaughter, Foreign Affairs July/August 2007 If true, this validates the view that US and Western workers not in the upper echelon income categories are bearing the brunt of enriching poor Asians. And the benefits of this are flowing disproportionately to the upper-echelon earners. So, the threat of MAD becoming reality is real - driven by real factors and fears. Rational individuals would avoid such a path. But the tug of events and circumstances sometimes take nations where they really don't wish to be.'

Response 1 - I don't think China is going let us leave them holding the bag (i.e., let us inflate away our debt). They will sacrifice their new middle class if necessary. Yes, they know it will cause civil unrest. They are prepared to deal with it.

Response 2 to 1 - 'They are prepared to deal with it.' I believe you are right, Leanan. I also believe that much of the Bush drive to garner more powers at the expense of our constitution is to position the US Government to 'deal with' domestic problems that will arise when the FWO (formerly well off) begin to feel frisky...Once they finally realize that they are the 'lobsters in the pot.'

Response 3 to 2 - Look at the USA from a similar outside perspective.

Maybe for the long term prospects of our country it makes sense for the Fed and Powers That Be (PTB) to allow the lower classes to be crushed in order for real wealth to be maintained at the very top (in order to start again).

Are there alternative options available to the Fed\PTB that would leave the USA in a better position to rebuild after the seemingly likely Financial Crunch?

Imagine we had leaders truly looking out for Everyone, what would their actions look like?

Response 4 to 3 - I am not sure if you have heard of the concept of globalization. Simply put, your PTB (Powers That Be) are not concerned about "your" country- they have more important things to worry about.

Response 5 to 4 - Right. They now look at countries the same way they look at businesses and product lines -- everything they need to know they learned in Marketing 101:

Pour investment capital into Rising Stars. That used to be the USA until around 1970 or so; China is the Rising Star today.

Milk the Cows. That has described the US, and what they have been doing to it, for the past quarter century or so.

Disinvest, sell out, and kill off the Dogs. This describes the new game plan for the USA, presently coming into full swing.

PUNCHLINE = Imagine we had leaders truly looking out for Everyone, what would their actions look like?

Instead of a trillion-dollar military occupation, we'd have a trillion dollars worth of PV panels on rooftops throughout the country. And we might be seeing some electric cars on the road by now.

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Friday, August 3, 2007

Turner is the New Tony Hall at the DDN - He can do no wrong! (or right)

Martin Gottlieb: Larry Korb brings out the combatant in Mike Turner
But Turner doesn't pose a question, and he gets up to leave before Korb can really respond. He seems to decide to stay only when the Democratic chairman asks him to.

It looks like one of the hyperpartisan pot shots that one often sees at the most highly charged congressional hearings. Which is interesting, because Turner says, "I am not a partisan." He prides himself on not playing those games.

He says that, in this case, he was put off, not by the substance of Korb's testimony, but by the tenor. Turner considered it partisan, the sort of thing one sees on cable television, rather than anything a serious legislator might find useful.

Korb's testimony is also available at the site that posted the video. The site is affiliated with the organization where Korb works these days.

The posting does tend to confirm the notion that Korb came as a political combatant. Childishly, it refers to Turner as a "chickenhawk," a term generally used about Vietnam draft dodgers, not people of Turner's later generation. And it calls Turner a "right-winger."

(In a phone call later, Korb revealed that he didn't know of Turner, any more than Turner knew him.)

Turner says he was only leaving the hearing because he had to leave. He says that whether the witness gets to respond is up to the chairman, that he (Turner) was fine with staying once he knew there was going to be a response.

Korb says he was shocked by the attack and that nothing so personal has happened before in the many, many times he has testified.

Marty takes a twisted course to defend Mike as he uses the word "seems" instead of the more appropriate...the impetuous Turner, after failing to belittle Korb, yields the rest of his time to silence him and is rebuked by the Chairman. Mr. Turner, already fleeing the chamber to fire a staffer, piroetes in the congressional aisle like he his on dancing with the stars and is forced to listen to Dr. Korb "put his military analysis up against anyone".

Marty then proceeds to an obvious Freudian reference by using the word "Childishly" when he refers to the web article about Mr. Turner. The kettle does not get any blacker than that and then to sell the public that Turner is not a "right-winger", OY VEY Martey. Mr. Turner worshiped George Bush's name to get that seat and he has voted to support this debacle in Iraq from the beginning of his term. Marty and Mike know that Mr. Hunter had the foresight to see the road ahead. C'est La Vie!

Marty, Mike and Mediocrity - Buy what Dayton builds!

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Thursday, August 2, 2007

Boehner Rationalizes Addiction by Blaming Democrats

RIGZONE - 'Nothing' Prods Oil to Record $78 a Barrel
House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, drew a connection Tuesday between rising oil prices and the energy priorities of the House Democrats, who are putting the final touches on an energy bill: "It's ironic that the price of oil would hit a new high in the very same week Democrats intend to make far less of it available for production in America," Boehner said. Democrats contend the bill, which would emphasize conservation, create incentives for alternative fuels and tighten up on some oil industry tax breaks, represents responsible energy policy over the long term. Oil prices may actually pull back in the coming weeks, some analysts said, as the U.S. summer vacation driving season comes to an end.

Ohio does represent America well, instead of admitting the United States is addicted to oil, he blames the Democrats for cutting the American supply. Boehner, as addicted smoker, should understand addiction as an addict cannot go long without getting a fix or rationalizing why he needs one. America can no longer supply the oil to feed its addiction so the addict is lashing out at everyone and everything, when the problem is in John Boehner's mirror.

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Monday, July 30, 2007

Mike Turner embarrasses himself and Dayton, Ohio

Think Progress » Chickenhawk Congressman Smears Military Expert
I watched this exchange in real time.
The poor reactionary thug did indeed
try these worn out old tactics, but it
was clear Lawrence Korb had the high
ground in the exchange, and was quite
dismissive in his reaction. Turner did
sound rather hysterical, and left the
distinct impression of a silly schoolboy
playing at acting like a grownup.

Is this the best Dayton Ohio can do?
I think not. Next time Dayton, send a
real grownup to the House, and stop
making yourselves look so silly and

Comment by BK — July 29, 2007 @ 10:21 pm

Poor Mikey but this kind of attack can only mean that Mike is in a safe seat and he is the only Republican they can send out to do the dirty work! The only problem is that he is still Mike Turner!

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Saturday, July 28, 2007

Why Dayton is Pathetic!

Emerson said, "The unexamined life is not worth living."

I study the human condition and this statement describes the political and ruling class in Dayton, Ohio. This election cycle cries for radical change, but we are going to select the same old group. Does anyone examine what life is about? The people being selected to represent the interests of the Dayton area have no original thought and maybe Dayton is getting the representation it deserves.

The DDN certainly celebrates the election of Husted and Turner, two of the most groupthink individuals in the Dayton area, when those of ideas and intelligence are relegated to the "I told you so" class. I have learned that saying I told you so, does not make the world better, it just makes the future more bleak as the choices to make corrections about how to live in harmony become limited.

I was right about Pete Forster, in 1978 and told Paula MacIlwaine that he was a bum. She defended him, because she was setup in the lighting business by Petey the bum and was essentially a purchased politician. Her protege Judy Dodge is now Montgomery County Commissioner. There are similar stories for each of the elected officials in the Dayton area, which the DDN accepts because the Cox sisters hate Dayton, but love the money.

Look at who the Republicans are selecting to represent the Dayton area - Pro Sprawl, non think, real estate backed Lehner and Blair. Blair works for Buckeye Pools and is on the commission with Lee Synder of Snyder Brick and Block. They know nothing but continued lining of the development pockets. Lehner is Pro-Growth of another sort and while admirable, provides little solution to problems we face. Jesus may save your soul, but man resisting the temptation to breed like bacteria may save the earth.

Continue down the path if we must, but I will fight it, for the good of humanity, with all my heart.

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Monday, July 23, 2007

Suburbia and energy consumption!

Again my favorite site (theoildrum) with my favorite poster describing what needs to be done in Dayton Ohio TODAY!  As well as why suburbia is unsustainable.  It is unfortunate that Dayton is run by medical doctors, poor CEO's and Realtors. Alan Drake talks about Dayton's electric trolley line at least once a month.

The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: July 23, 2007
Some fraction of a reformed suburbia will likely survive with more than a "half our act together" effort. Much will not regardless.

One reason is the energy to support suburbia. More streetlights/capita (we could run quite a bit of rail off that possible conservation source, turning off the street lights in suburbia), plumbers, mail delivery, police, UPS delivery, etc. all require significantly more energy, i.e. oil, to service standard American suburbia than urban areas or new TOD (Transit Orientated Development). And much more pavement/person (and feet of water & sewer lines) to maintain in Suburbia.

In addition, suburban housing is generally quite poorly built and energy in-efficient (last Christmas in Phoenix a Real Estate article in local paper claimed market was STILL interested in "luxury extras" and no interest in higher energy effiency).

Suburbia was built on a herd mentality. People went to the hot areas outside town and bought the "in" floor plan, with minimal independent thought. (Remember avocado colored appliances ?) Once the herd starts leaving, in can turn into a stampede. Who will spend money on major repairs on an "investment" that is declining in value ? Especially if the neighbors aren't ?

Good public transportation cannot be cost effective in very low density areas.

IMVHO, Suburbia will decline because of

1) Direct energy costs (commuting, transportation to get essentials, HVAC)
2) Indirect energy costs (support infrastructure)
3) Needed repairs escalating in costs as market value declines
4) Herd mentality as empty homes appear and deteriorate over time nearby

Best Hopes for Urban Rail & TOD,


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Friday, July 20, 2007

Peak Oil Rationalization

I am like Bill Gates; I rob from the best. This the type of reply I get from elected officials and drivers in Dayton.

The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: July 20, 2007
There is a lot of this type of rationalization going on now. Say something negative about an SUV and the drivers will yell that the SUV haters are just jealous because they can't afford one. People are having a harder and harder time keeping all of the contradictory bits of information in their head that makes up the convoluted mess they call a belief system. The only way to glue all of it together is to come up with really stupid arguments and shoutout any debate on those points that would cause the house of cards their world view is built upon to collapse.

The poll I posted the other day that showed less than five percent of the people in this country blame our national driving habits for high gas prices is a prime example of our failure to think rationally. It has to be the fault of the selfish traders, the evil worshiping ragheads, the tree hugging liberals, the greedy oil barons, the non-libertarian government, etc. It has to be the fault of anyone but them! There are people now saying they had no choice but to move into a huge house fifty miles from work and buy a big SUV because society told them to. Apparently we are a nation of zombies powerless to think for ourselves. Hmmm... come to think of it, that one might be true.

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Thursday, July 19, 2007

Idiocy Prevails in Kettering

I know how far we have come in a few generations. My Dad's mother killed chickens and use to have them in the yard to supplement food supplies. Now we are so far removed from Nature that we think we can regulate it out of existence. Does anybody ask whether keeping a certain amount of chickens might be a good thing? Do we ask why the law was created and for what benefit? NO! We fall back on legal interpretation instead of looking at the big picture.

The time is arriving were energy costs are going to continue to increase due to declining production, and if you, as a citizen, start to hear about wars and strife in the developing world it will be partially due to the fact that they can no longer afford oil to power their societies. America will not know or care as the newspapers and government refuse to discuss, because the American way of life is not negotiable.

If you determine that you can fill up your tank and kill those with oil to live the American dream, then so be it. We have killed many men and beasts to make America, why not continue to pillage. It is just our nature.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Downtown Dayton Coalition - How does it work and who benefits?

The Dayton Daily News does not do its job, but that's no surprise, is it? They simply toot the horn of whatever some Dayton entity wants or says with no questions asked. Well I have a few? Who runs the Coalition? Who benefits? Are the earmarks actually working for the Region or is it a skim job to collect taxpayer money and dole it out to un regulated projects that provide no more value than the Bridge to Nowhere. The DDN does not see fit to explain any of this information, it is not a newspaper, but a stenographer for the connected in the Dayton Area. The DDN's goal is to fleece the public in two ways, provide a lousy paper at an exorbitant price and allow the ruling class to fleece the public coffers. The elite of Dayton, in cahoots with the DDN, know what is best for you! How has the been working out for Dayton?

Read the Article - Does it ever mention that Doug Franklin, the DDN publisher, is part of the Coalition?